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The properties of the OLS estimator

Summary

Setup

The linear regression model with random sampling,

yi=β1+β2xi,2+β3xi,3++βkxi,k+εi,i=1,,n

b1,b2,,bk are the OLS estimators of β1,β2,,βk .

Gauss-Markov assumptions

The following set of assumptions qualify as Gauss-Markov assumptions:

  • All the x -variables are exogenous

E(εi|xi)=0,i=1,,n

  • The residuals are homoscedastic with a common variance σ2

Var(εi|xi)=σ2,i=1,,n

OLS unbiased

  • The OLS estimators b1,b2,,bk are unbiased if all the x -variables are exogenous

OLS consistent

  • The OLS estimators b1,b2,,bk are consistent under mild conditions if all the x -variables are exogenous.

Under GM assumptions,

  • It is possible to derive the variance of the of the OLS estimators (the OLS GM variance formulas)

Var(bj|x),j=1,,k

  • This variance will depend on all the x -data as well as σ2 but the formulas are messy when k>2 (without using matrices).
  • We define

s2=RSSnk=1nkni=1e2i

  • Under GM, s2 (the OLS estimator of σ2 ) is an unbiased and consistent (under mild conditions) estimator of σ2 .
  • s , the square root of s2 , is called standard error of the regression.
  • If we replace σ2 with s2 in the OLS GM variance formulas, we get the estimated variance of b1,b2,,bk :

^Var(bj),j=1,,k

  • The OLS standard errors
  • SE(bj)=^Var(bj),j=1,,k
  • are presented in all econometric packages.
  • The OLS estimators will be BLUE (Best Linear Unbiased Estimator).