Law of iterated expectations

Summary

  • \(X,Y\) are two random variables. The law of iterated expectations states that

\[E\left( E\left( X \right) \right)=E\left( Y \right)\]

Example, discrete random variables

  • \(f(x,y)\) is defined by the following table:

  • \(E\left( X \right)\) is a random variable \(Z\) defined by \(f_Z\left( 0.2 \right)=0.5\) , \(f_Z\left( 0.8 \right)=0.5\) . The expected value of \(Z\) is

\[E\left( Z \right)=E\left( E\left( X \right) \right)=0.2⋅0.5+0.8⋅0.5=0.5\]

\[E\left( Y \right)=0⋅0.5+1⋅0.5=0.5\]

Example, continuous random variables

  • \(f\left( x,y \right)=x+y\) for \(0≤x≤ 1\) and \(0≤y≤ 1\) . \(E\left( X \right)\) is then the random variable

\[Z= \frac{3X+2}{6X+3}\]

  • and

\[E\left( Z \right)=E\left( E\left( X \right) \right)=\int_{5/9}^{2/3}{ z⋅ \frac{1}{18{\left( 2z-1 \right)}^3}dz }= \frac{7}{12}\]

\[E\left( Y \right)=\int_{0}^{1}{ y\left( y+ \frac{1}{2} \right)dx }= \frac{7}{12}\]